Last 5 US General Elections Review

In this post, I will be looking at the November 2008 US General Election and what would’ve happened if the GE is held today based at the all information available including the last 5 years of the US General Election plus various national poll data and my own analysis.
I didn’t include the scenarios where Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Clinton or Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Obama for one simple reason. The information is a little complicated and won’t fit in one simple post. Therefore, for this analysis, this post assumes that it won’t really matter whose Democratic Party Nominee is.

Notes:
1. This post is “Work In Progress”.
2. Last updated: 4/9/2008.
3. States are sorted by State codes.
4. EV = Electoral Vote.
5. National Poll: There are too many news sources, companies and organization with national polling data. It is unrealistic to list them all. There is no preference in one way or another. I just look at many polling data as I can and used my personal judgment as well.

Color Codes:
D = Solid Democrat State
LD = Leaning Democrat State
R = Solid GOP State
LR = Leaning GOP State
TU = Toss-Up State

A Look at the Last 5 US General Elections
State	EV(4)	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008 DEM	2008 LD	2008 GOP	2008 LR
AK	3	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	3	-
AL	9	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	9	-
AR	6	R	D	D	R	R	-	-	-	6
AZ	10	R	R	D	R	R	-	-	10	-
CA	55	R	D	D	D	D	55	-	-	-
CO	9	R	D	R	R	R	0	0	0	0
CT	7	R	D	D	D	D	7	-	-	-
DC	3	D	D	D	D	D	3	-	-	-
DE	3	R	D	D	D	D	3	-	-	-
FL	27	R	R	D	R	R	-	-	-	27
GA	15	R	D	R	R	R	-	-	-	15
HI	4	D	D	D	D	D	4	-	-	-
IA	7	D	D	D	D	R	0	0	0	0
ID	4	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	4	-
IL	21	R	D	D	D	D	21	-	-	-
IN	11	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	11	-
KS	6	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	6	-
KY	8	R	D	D	R	R	-	-	8	-
LA	9	R	D	D	R	R	-	-	-	27
MA	12	D	D	D	D	D	12	-	-	-
MD	10	R	D	D	D	D	10	-	-	-
ME	4	R	D	D	D	D	4	-	-	-
MI	17	R	D	D	D	D	0	0	0	0
MN	10	D	D	D	D	D	-	10	-	-
MO	11	R	D	D	R	R	0	0	0	0
MS	6	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	-	6
MT	3	R	D	R	R	R	-	-	-	3
NC	15	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	-	15
ND	3	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	3	-
NE	5	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	5	-
NH	4	R	D	D	R	D	0	0	0	0
NJ	15	R	D	D	D	D	-	15	-	-
NM	5	R	D	D	D	R	0	0	0	0
NV	5	R	D	D	R	R	0	0	0	0
NY	31	D	D	D	D	D	31	-	-	-
OH	20	R	D	D	R	R	0	0	0	0
OK	7	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	7	-
OR	7	D	D	D	D	D	-	7	-	-
PA	21	R	D	D	D	D	0	0	0	0
RI	4	D	D	D	D	D	4	-	-	-
SC	8	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	8	-
SD	3	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	3	-
TN	11	R	D	D	R	R	-	-	11	-
TX	34	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	34	-
UT	5	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	5	-
VA	13	R	R	R	R	R	0	0	0	0
VT	3	R	D	D	D	D	3	-	-	-
WA	11	D	D	D	D	D	11	-	-	-
WI	10	D	D	D	D	D	-	10	-	-
WV	7	D	D	D	R	R	-	-	7	-
WY	3	R	R	R	R	R	-	-	3	-
This is a divider
Empty TD				Dem. Base			168	-	-	-
Empty TD				Leaning Dem.			-	42	-	-
Empty TD				GOP Base			-	-	135	-
Empty TD				Leaning GOP			-	-	-	81
Totals (DEM and LD / GOP and LR)							210		216
Empty TD			Toss-Up States			112	-	-	-	-
Last Updated: 04/09/2008 - 10:40 PM