In this post, I will be looking at the November 2008 US General Election and what would’ve happened if the GE is held today based at the all information available including the last 5 years of the US General Election plus various national poll data and my own analysis.
I didn’t include the scenarios where Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Clinton or Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Obama for one simple reason. The information is a little complicated and won’t fit in one simple post. Therefore, for this analysis, this post assumes that it won’t really matter whose Democratic Party Nominee is.
Notes:
1. This post is “Work In Progress”.
2. Last updated: 4/9/2008.
3. States are sorted by State codes.
4. EV = Electoral Vote.
5. National Poll: There are too many news sources, companies and organization with national polling data. It is unrealistic to list them all. There is no preference in one way or another. I just look at many polling data as I can and used my personal judgment as well.
Color Codes:
D = Solid Democrat StateLD = Leaning Democrat StateR = Solid GOP StateLR = Leaning GOP StateTU = Toss-Up State| A Look at the Last 5 US General Elections |
| State | EV(4) | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 DEM | 2008 LD | 2008 GOP | 2008 LR |
| AK | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
| AL | 9 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 9 | - |
| AR | 6 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | - | 6 |
| AZ | 10 | R | R | D | R | R | - | - | 10 | - |
| CA | 55 | R | D | D | D | D | 55 | - | - | - |
| CO | 9 | R | D | R | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CT | 7 | R | D | D | D | D | 7 | - | - | - |
| DC | 3 | D | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
| DE | 3 | R | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
| FL | 27 | R | R | D | R | R | - | - | - | 27 |
| GA | 15 | R | D | R | R | R | - | - | - | 15 |
| HI | 4 | D | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
| IA | 7 | D | D | D | D | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ID | 4 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 4 | - |
| IL | 21 | R | D | D | D | D | 21 | - | - | - |
| IN | 11 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 11 | - |
| KS | 6 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 6 | - |
| KY | 8 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | 8 | - |
| LA | 9 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | - | 27 |
| MA | 12 | D | D | D | D | D | 12 | - | - | - |
| MD | 10 | R | D | D | D | D | 10 | - | - | - |
| ME | 4 | R | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
| MI | 17 | R | D | D | D | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MN | 10 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 10 | - | - |
| MO | 11 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MS | 6 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | - | 6 |
| MT | 3 | R | D | R | R | R | - | - | - | 3 |
| NC | 15 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | - | 15 |
| ND | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
| NE | 5 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 5 | - |
| NH | 4 | R | D | D | R | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NJ | 15 | R | D | D | D | D | - | 15 | - | - |
| NM | 5 | R | D | D | D | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NV | 5 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NY | 31 | D | D | D | D | D | 31 | - | - | - |
| OH | 20 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OK | 7 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 7 | - |
| OR | 7 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 7 | - | - |
| PA | 21 | R | D | D | D | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RI | 4 | D | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
| SC | 8 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 8 | - |
| SD | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
| TN | 11 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | 11 | - |
| TX | 34 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 34 | - |
| UT | 5 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 5 | - |
| VA | 13 | R | R | R | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VT | 3 | R | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
| WA | 11 | D | D | D | D | D | 11 | - | - | - |
| WI | 10 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 10 | - | - |
| WV | 7 | D | D | D | R | R | - | - | 7 | - |
| WY | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
| This is a divider |
| Empty TD | Dem. Base | 168 | - | - | - |
| Empty TD | Leaning Dem. | - | 42 | - | - |
| Empty TD | GOP Base | - | - | 135 | - |
| Empty TD | Leaning GOP | - | - | - | 81 |
| Totals (DEM and LD / GOP and LR) | 210 | 216 |
| Empty TD | Toss-Up States | 112 | - | - | - | - |
| Last Updated: 04/09/2008 - 10:40 PM |