In this post, I will be looking at the November 2008 US General Election and what would’ve happened if the GE is held today based at the all information available including the last 5 years of the US General Election plus various national poll data and my own analysis.
I didn’t include the scenarios where Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Clinton or Sen. McCain might run against Sen. Obama for one simple reason. The information is a little complicated and won’t fit in one simple post. Therefore, for this analysis, this post assumes that it won’t really matter whose Democratic Party Nominee is.
Notes:
1. This post is “Work In Progress”.
2. Last updated: 4/9/2008.
3. States are sorted by State codes.
4. EV = Electoral Vote.
5. National Poll: There are too many news sources, companies and organization with national polling data. It is unrealistic to list them all. There is no preference in one way or another. I just look at many polling data as I can and used my personal judgment as well.
Color Codes:
D = Solid Democrat StateLD = Leaning Democrat StateR = Solid GOP StateLR = Leaning GOP StateTU = Toss-Up StateA Look at the Last 5 US General Elections |
State | EV(4) | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 DEM | 2008 LD | 2008 GOP | 2008 LR |
AK | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
AL | 9 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 9 | - |
AR | 6 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | - | 6 |
AZ | 10 | R | R | D | R | R | - | - | 10 | - |
CA | 55 | R | D | D | D | D | 55 | - | - | - |
CO | 9 | R | D | R | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CT | 7 | R | D | D | D | D | 7 | - | - | - |
DC | 3 | D | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
DE | 3 | R | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
FL | 27 | R | R | D | R | R | - | - | - | 27 |
GA | 15 | R | D | R | R | R | - | - | - | 15 |
HI | 4 | D | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
IA | 7 | D | D | D | D | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ID | 4 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 4 | - |
IL | 21 | R | D | D | D | D | 21 | - | - | - |
IN | 11 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 11 | - |
KS | 6 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 6 | - |
KY | 8 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | 8 | - |
LA | 9 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | - | 27 |
MA | 12 | D | D | D | D | D | 12 | - | - | - |
MD | 10 | R | D | D | D | D | 10 | - | - | - |
ME | 4 | R | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
MI | 17 | R | D | D | D | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MN | 10 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 10 | - | - |
MO | 11 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MS | 6 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | - | 6 |
MT | 3 | R | D | R | R | R | - | - | - | 3 |
NC | 15 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | - | 15 |
ND | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
NE | 5 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 5 | - |
NH | 4 | R | D | D | R | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NJ | 15 | R | D | D | D | D | - | 15 | - | - |
NM | 5 | R | D | D | D | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NV | 5 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NY | 31 | D | D | D | D | D | 31 | - | - | - |
OH | 20 | R | D | D | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
OK | 7 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 7 | - |
OR | 7 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 7 | - | - |
PA | 21 | R | D | D | D | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
RI | 4 | D | D | D | D | D | 4 | - | - | - |
SC | 8 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 8 | - |
SD | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
TN | 11 | R | D | D | R | R | - | - | 11 | - |
TX | 34 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 34 | - |
UT | 5 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 5 | - |
VA | 13 | R | R | R | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
VT | 3 | R | D | D | D | D | 3 | - | - | - |
WA | 11 | D | D | D | D | D | 11 | - | - | - |
WI | 10 | D | D | D | D | D | - | 10 | - | - |
WV | 7 | D | D | D | R | R | - | - | 7 | - |
WY | 3 | R | R | R | R | R | - | - | 3 | - |
This is a divider |
Empty TD | Dem. Base | 168 | - | - | - |
Empty TD | Leaning Dem. | - | 42 | - | - |
Empty TD | GOP Base | - | - | 135 | - |
Empty TD | Leaning GOP | - | - | - | 81 |
Totals (DEM and LD / GOP and LR) | 210 | 216 |
Empty TD | Toss-Up States | 112 | - | - | - | - |
Last Updated: 04/09/2008 - 10:40 PM |